Hundreds of millions of people are affected by hyperinsulinaemia, insulin resistance, obesity and the dysglycaemia that mark a common progression from metabolic health to type 2 diabetes. Although the relative contribution of these features and the order in which they appear may differ between individuals, the common clustering and seemingly progressive nature of type 2 diabetes aetiology has guided research and clinical practice in this area for decades. At the same time, lively debate around the causal relationships between these features has continued, as new data from human trials and highly controlled animal studies are presented. This ‘For debate’ article was prompted by the review in Diabetologia by Esser, Utzschneider and Kahn ( https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-020-05245-x ), with the purpose of reviewing established and emerging data that provide insight into the relative contributions of hyperinsulinaemia and impaired glucose-stimulated insulin secretion in progressive stages between health, obesity and diabetes. It is concluded that these beta cell defects are not mutually exclusive and that they are both important, but at different stages.